Cov tuam txhab ua lag luam ntawm lub cim xeeb chips tau ua haujlwm hnyav los kov yeej lub caij ntuj no txias.Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix thiab Micron tau txo qis kev tsim khoom, daws cov teeb meem ntawm cov khoom muag, txuag cov peev txheej, thiab ncua kev nce qib ntawm cov thev naus laus zis thev naus laus zis los daws cov kev xav tau tsis muaj zog rau kev nco."Peb nyob rau lub sijhawm ntawm kev poob nyiaj txiag."Thaum Lub Kaum Hli 27, Samsung Electronics tau hais rau cov tub ua lag luam ntawm lub rooj sib tham txog nyiaj txiag lub quarter thib peb tias, ntxiv rau, lub tuam txhab cov khoom lag luam tau nce sai hauv peb lub hlis twg.
Nco yog lub siab tshaj plaws ceg ntawm lub lag luam semiconductor, nrog rau qhov chaw ua lag luam ntawm 160 billion las hauv 2021. Nws kuj tuaj yeem pom nyob txhua qhov chaw hauv cov khoom siv hluav taws xob.Nws yog cov khoom lag luam uas tau tsim muaj kev paub tab hauv kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb.Kev lag luam muaj qhov pom tseeb raws sijhawm nrog kev hloov pauv ntawm cov khoom muag, kev xav tau, thiab muaj peev xwm.Ntau lawm thiab profitability ntawm manufacturers hloov dramatically nrog lub cyclical fluctuations ntawm kev lag luam.
Raws li kev tshawb fawb ntawm TrendForce Jibang Consulting, qhov kev loj hlob ntawm NAND kev lag luam hauv 2022 yuav tsuas yog 23.2%, uas yog qhov kev loj hlob qis tshaj plaws hauv 8 xyoo tsis ntev los no;Qhov kev loj hlob ntawm kev nco (DRAM) tsuas yog 19%, thiab xav tias yuav poob ntxiv mus rau 14.1% hauv 2023.
Jeffrey Mathews, tus kws ntsuam xyuas laus ntawm cov xov tooj ntawm tes kev pabcuam thev naus laus zis ntawm Strategy Analytics, tau hais rau cov neeg sau xov xwm tias kev lag luam oversupply tau ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam rau lub voj voog qis, uas tseem yog qhov laj thawj tseem ceeb rau tus nqi qis ntawm DRAM thiab NAND.Xyoo 2021, cov tuam txhab lag luam yuav zoo siab txog kev nthuav dav ntau lawm.NAND thiab DRAM tseem yuav tsis txaus.Raws li qhov kev thov sab pib poob qis hauv 2022, kev ua lag luam yuav dhau los ua khoom muag.Lwm tus SK Hynix tau hais hauv nws daim ntawv tshaj tawm nyiaj txiag peb lub hlis twg uas qhov kev thov rau DRAM thiab NAND cov khoom lag luam tau qeeb, thiab ob qho tib si muag thiab tus nqi poob.
Sravan Kundojjala, tus thawj coj ntawm lub xov tooj ntawm tes cov kev pabcuam kev pabcuam ntawm Strategy Analytics, hais rau cov neeg sau xov xwm tias qhov kev lag luam poob qis kawg tau tshwm sim hauv 2019, thaum cov nyiaj tau los thiab kev siv peev ntawm tag nrho cov nroj tsuag nco tau poob qis, thiab kev lag luam tsis muaj zog tau kav ntev li ob peb lub hlis twg ua ntej poob tawm.Muaj qee qhov zoo sib xws ntawm 2022 thiab 2019, tab sis lub sijhawm no qhov kev hloov kho zoo li hnyav dua.
Jeffrey Mathews tau hais tias lub voj voog no tseem cuam tshuam los ntawm kev thov qis, kev lag luam poob qis thiab kev kub ntxhov ntawm thaj chaw.Qhov kev thov rau smartphones thiab PCs, ob lub ntsiab tsav tsheb ntawm kev nco tau ntau xyoo, yog qhov tsis muaj zog thiab xav tias yuav kav mus txog xyoo 2023.
Samsung Electronics tau hais tias rau cov khoom siv txawb, kev thov yuav nyob twj ywm tsis muaj zog thiab qeeb hauv thawj ib nrab xyoo tom ntej, thiab kev ntseeg siab ntawm cov neeg siv khoom yuav nyob qis qis hauv lub caij nyoog tsis muaj zog.Rau PC, cov khoom lag luam tau khaws cia vim qhov muag qis yuav raug tso tseg nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo tom ntej, thiab nws zoo li yuav pom qhov kev xav tau zoo.Lub tuam txhab tseem yuav tsom mus ntxiv seb puas yog macro-economy tuaj yeem ruaj khov nyob rau hauv ib nrab xyoo tom ntej thiab cov cim ntawm kev lag luam rov qab los.
Sravan Kundojjala tau hais tias cov chaw khaws ntaub ntawv, tsheb, kev lag luam, kev txawj ntse thiab kev sib txuas lus muab kev pabcuam nco nrog kev loj hlob yav tom ntej.Micron, SK Hynix thiab Samsung Electronics txhua tus tau hais txog qhov tshwm sim ntawm qee tus tsav tsheb tshiab hauv peb lub hlis twg cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag: cov ntaub ntawv chaw thiab cov servers yuav dhau los ua lub zog tsav tsheb tom ntej hauv kev lag luam nco.
Cov khoom muag siab
Ib qho khoom siv hluav taws xob yooj yim suav nrog cov tshuab hauv qab no, sensors, processors, nco thiab actuators.Lub cim xeeb yog lub luag haujlwm rau kev ua haujlwm ntawm cov ntaub ntawv nco, uas tuaj yeem muab faib ua lub cim xeeb (DRAM) thiab flash nco (NAND) raws li cov khoom lag luam.Cov khoom sib xws ntawm DRAM feem ntau yog lub cim xeeb module.Flash tuaj yeem pom txhua qhov chaw hauv lub neej, suav nrog microSD daim npav, U disk, SSD (khoom lub xeev disk), thiab lwm yam.
Kev lag luam nco yog cov concentrated heev.Raws li World Semiconductor Trade Statistics Organization (WSTS) cov ntaub ntawv, Samsung, Micron thiab SK Hynix ua ke suav txog li 94% ntawm DRAM kev ua lag luam.Hauv NAND Flash teb, Samsung, Armor Man, SK Hynix, Western Digital, Micron thiab Intel ua ke suav txog li 98%.
Raws li TrendForce Jibang kev sab laj cov ntaub ntawv, DRAM cov nqi tau poob tag nrho txij li thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo, thiab daim ntawv cog lus tus nqi nyob rau ib nrab ntawm 2022 yuav poob ntau dua 10% txhua lub hlis twg.NAND tus nqi kuj tseem txo qis ntxiv.Hauv lub quarter thib peb, qhov txo qis tau nce los ntawm 15-20% mus rau 30-35%.
Thaum Lub Kaum Hli 27, Samsung Electronics tau tshaj tawm nws cov txiaj ntsig peb lub hlis twg, uas qhia tau tias lub tuam txhab semiconductor (DS) lub luag haujlwm rau kev lag luam nti tau nyiaj tau los ntawm 23.02 trillion yeej hauv peb lub hlis twg, qis dua li cov kws tshuaj ntsuam kev cia siab.Cov nyiaj tau los ntawm lub tuam tsev lub luag haujlwm rau kev lag luam khaws cia yog 15.23 trillion won, nqis 28% lub hli nyob rau lub hli thiab 27% xyoo rau xyoo.Samsung Electronics suav nrog cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, cov khoom siv hauv tsev, vaj huam sib luag thiab smartphones.
Lub tuam txhab tau hais tias qhov tsis muaj zog ntawm kev nco tau npog qhov kev nce qib ntawm kev ua tau zoo tag nrho.Tag nrho cov nyiaj tau los tag nrho poob qis los ntawm 2.7%, thiab cov txiaj ntsig kev khiav hauj lwm kuj tau txo los ntawm 4.1 feem pua cov ntsiab lus rau 14.1%.
Thaum Lub Kaum Hli 26, SK Hynix cov nyiaj tau los hauv peb lub hlis twg yog 10.98 trillion yeej, thiab nws cov txiaj ntsig kev ua haujlwm yog 1.66 trillion yeej, nrog rau kev muag khoom thiab kev ua haujlwm tau txais txiaj ntsig poob 20.5% thiab 60.5% lub hli ntawm lub hli.Thaum lub Cuaj Hlis 29, Micron, lwm lub Hoobkas loj, tau tshaj tawm nws daim ntawv qhia txog nyiaj txiag rau lub quarter thib plaub ntawm 2022 (Lub Rau Hli 8, 2022).Nws cov nyiaj tau los tsuas yog US $ 6.64 billion, nqis 23% ntawm lub hli thiab 20% xyoo rau xyoo.
Samsung Electronics tau hais tias cov laj thawj tseem ceeb ntawm qhov kev thov tsis muaj zog yog qhov teeb meem tsis tu ncua ntawm macro tam sim no thiab cov khoom lag luam hloov kho cov neeg siv khoom tau ntsib, uas yog qhov loj dua qhov xav tau.Lub tuam txhab pom tau hais tias kev ua lag luam tau txhawj xeeb txog nws cov khoom lag luam qib siab vim qhov tsis muaj zog ntawm cov khoom nco.
Samsung Electronics tau hais tias nws tau sim tswj nws cov khoom muag mus rau qib sib npaug.Tsis tas li ntawd, cov khoom lag luam qib tam sim no tsis tuaj yeem txiav txim siab los ntawm cov qauv yav dhau los, vim tias cov neeg siv khoom tau ntsib kev hloov pauv ntawm cov khoom muag, thiab qhov kev hloov pauv tau dhau qhov kev cia siab.
Jeffrey Mathews tau hais tias yav dhau los, tau tsav los ntawm lub sijhawm ntawm kev cia khoom lag luam, cov neeg tsim khoom tau maj nrawm kom ua tau raws li qhov xav tau rov qab los thiab nthuav tawm cov khoom lag luam.Nrog kev txo qis ntawm cov neeg siv khoom xav tau, cov khoom tau maj mam dhau.Tam sim no lawv tab tom daws lawv cov teeb meem khoom muag.
Meguiar Light tau hais tias yuav luag txhua tus neeg siv khoom loj hauv kev ua lag luam kawg tab tom hloov kho cov khoom muag.Sravan Kundojjala hais rau cov neeg sau xov xwm tias tam sim no, qee tus neeg muag khoom tau kos npe rau daim ntawv cog lus ntev nrog cov neeg siv khoom, vam tias yuav txo cov khoom tiav hauv cov khoom muag, thiab tseem tab tom sim ua kom cov khoom muag hloov pauv kom sib npaug ntawm cov kev hloov pauv hauv kev thov.
Conservative tswv yim
"Peb ib txwm hais txog kev txhim kho tus nqi kom ua kom tus nqi qis dua rau txhua tus neeg sib tw, uas yog txoj hauv kev los xyuas kom muaj txiaj ntsig ruaj khov tam sim no."Samsung Electronics ntseeg hais tias cov khoom muaj nqi elasticity, uas tuaj yeem siv los tsim qee qhov kev thov.Ntawm chav kawm, cov nyhuv yog txwv heev, thiab tag nrho cov nqi sib txawv yog tseem uncontrolled.
SK Hynix tau hais ntawm lub rooj sib tham hauv peb lub quarter nyiaj txiag hais tias txhawm rau txhawm rau txhim kho cov nqi, lub tuam txhab tau sim txhim kho qhov muag piv thiab cov txiaj ntsig ntawm cov khoom tshiab hauv peb lub hlis twg, tab sis tus nqi txo qis tshaj qhov txo tus nqi, thiab cov txiaj ntsig kev khiav hauj lwm kuj tsis kam.
Raws li TrendForce Jibang kev sab laj cov ntaub ntawv, lub cim xeeb tso tawm ntawm Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix thiab Micron tsuas yog khaws cia 12-13% kev loj hlob xyoo no.Nyob rau hauv 2023, cov zis ntawm Samsung Electronics yuav txo los ntawm 8%, SK Hynix los ntawm 6.6%, thiab Micron los ntawm 4.3%
Cov chaw tsim khoom loj tau ceev faj txog kev siv peev nyiaj thiab kev nthuav dav ntau lawm.SK Hynix tau hais tias xyoo tom ntej kev siv peev nyiaj yuav txo qis dua 50% xyoo rau xyoo, thiab xyoo no kev nqis peev yuav tsum yog kwv yees li 10-20 trillion won.Micron kuj tau hais tias nws yuav txo qis nws cov peev txheej siv nyiaj hauv xyoo 2023 thiab txo qhov kev siv ntawm cov chaw tsim khoom.
TrendForce Jibang Consulting tau hais tias nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm kev nco, piv nrog Samsung Electronics 'Q4 2023 thiab Q4 2022 kev npaj peev, tsuas yog 40000 daim yuav muab ntxiv rau hauv nruab nrab;SK Hynix ntxiv 20,000 zaj yeeb yaj kiab, thaum Meguiar muaj ntau dua, tsuas yog 5000 ntau zaj yeeb yaj kiab.Tsis tas li ntawd, cov tuam txhab tsim khoom tau pib tsim cov nroj tsuag nco tshiab.Tam sim no, kev nce qib ntawm cov nroj tsuag yog nce mus, tab sis tag nrho cov qauv yog ncua.
Samsung Electronics kuj zoo siab rau kev nthuav dav ntau lawm.Lub tuam txhab tau hais tias nws yuav txuas ntxiv tswj cov qib tsim nyog ntawm kev nqis peev hauv vaj tse los tiv thaiv qhov nruab nrab - thiab kev xav tau mus ntev, tab sis nws cov peev txheej hauv cov cuab yeej yuav hloov pauv ntau dua.Txawm hais tias qhov kev xav tau ntawm kev lag luam tam sim no poob qis, lub tuam txhab yuav tsum tau npaj rau kev thov rov qab los ntawm lub sijhawm nruab nrab thiab lub sijhawm ntev los ntawm kev pom zoo, yog li lub tuam txhab yuav tsis tuaj yeem txo qis kev tsim khoom kom tau raws li cov khoom siv luv luv thiab kev xav tau sib npaug.
Jeffrey Mathews tau hais tias qhov kev txo qis ntawm kev siv nyiaj thiab cov khoom tsim tawm kuj tseem cuam tshuam rau kev tshawb fawb thiab kev tsim cov thev naus laus zis ntawm cov tuam txhab tsim khoom, thiab kev nrawm ntawm kev nce mus rau qib siab yuav qeeb qeeb, yog li kev txo nqi me ntsis (tus nqi me ntsis) kuj yuav qeeb.
tos ntsoov rau xyoo tom ntej
Cov tuam txhab sib txawv txhais cov lag luam nco txawv.Raws li lub davhlau ya nyob twg, peb lub zog tsav ntawm lub cim xeeb yog cov xov tooj ntse, PCs thiab servers.
TrendForce Jibang Consulting kwv yees tias feem ntawm kev lag luam nco los ntawm cov servers yuav loj hlob mus rau 36% hauv 2023, ze rau feem ntawm cov xov tooj ntawm tes.Lub cim xeeb ntawm lub xov tooj siv rau lub xov tooj ntawm tes muaj qhov chaw qis dua, uas yuav raug txo los ntawm qhov qub 38.5% mus rau 37.3%.Cov khoom siv hluav taws xob hauv kev lag luam flash nco yuav tsis muaj zog, nrog cov xov tooj ntse loj hlob los ntawm 2.8% thiab laptops poob los ntawm 8-9%.
Liu Jiahao, tus thawj coj tshawb fawb ntawm Jibang Consulting, tau hais hauv "2022 Jibang Consulting Semiconductor Summit thiab Storage Industry Summit" thaum Lub Kaum Hli 12 tias kev txhim kho kev nco tuaj yeem muab faib ua ntau lub zog tsav tsheb tseem ceeb, uas tau tsav los ntawm laptops los ntawm 2008 txog 2011;Xyoo 2012, nrog rau cov khoom siv ntse xws li cov xov tooj ntawm tes thiab ntsiav tshuaj, thiab tau tsav los ntawm Is Taws Nem, cov cuab yeej no tau hloov cov khoos phis tawj ua lub ntsiab tsav tsheb kom rub lub cim xeeb;Nyob rau lub sijhawm 2016-2019, kev siv Internet tau nthuav dav ntxiv, cov servers thiab cov chaw khaws ntaub ntawv tau dhau los ua qhov tseem ceeb dua li digital infrastructure, thiab kev cia khoom tau pib muaj lub zog tshiab.
Jeffrey Mathews tau hais tias qhov kawg ntawm lub cim xeeb kev lag luam tau tshwm sim hauv 2019, vim tias qhov kev thov rau cov xov tooj smartphones, lub lag luam loj tshaj plaws, tau poob qis.Nyob rau lub sijhawm ntawd, cov khoom lag luam tau sau ntau cov khoom muag, qhov kev thov ntawm cov tuam txhab xov tooj ntse tau poob qis, thiab NAND thiab DRAM ASP (tus nqi muag nruab nrab) rau cov xov tooj ntse kuj tau poob ob tus lej.
Liu Jiahao tau hais tias nyob rau lub sijhawm xyoo 2020 txog 2022, qhov xwm txheej muaj kabmob sib kis, kev hloov pauv digital, cov neeg siv khoom siv hluav taws xob tsis muaj zog thiab lwm yam kev hloov pauv tau tshwm sim, thiab kev lag luam kev thov rau kev siv hluav taws xob siab tau muaj zog dua yav dhau los.Ntau Internet thiab IT tuam txhab lag luam tau tso tawm cov chaw zov me nyuam, uas tseem tau tsav cov kev loj hlob ntawm digitalization mus rau huab.Qhov kev thov rau cia rau servers yuav pom tseeb dua.Txawm hais tias tam sim no kev lag luam feem ntau tseem me me, cov ntaub ntawv chaw thiab cov servers yuav dhau los ua tus tsav tsheb tseem ceeb ntawm kev lag luam cia hauv nruab nrab thiab ntev.
Samsung Electronics yuav ntxiv cov khoom lag luam rau cov servers thiab cov chaw khaws ntaub ntawv hauv xyoo 2023. Samsung Electronics tau hais tias, xav txog kev nqis peev hauv cov txheej txheem tseem ceeb xws li AI thiab 5G, qhov kev thov rau DRAM cov khoom los ntawm cov servers yuav nyob ruaj khov rau xyoo tom ntej.
Sravan Kundojjala tau hais tias feem ntau cov neeg muag khoom xav txo lawv txoj kev tsom mus rau PC thiab smartphone kev lag luam.Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, cov ntaub ntawv chaw, tsheb, kev lag luam, kev txawj ntse thiab kev sib tham hauv network muab lawv txoj hauv kev loj hlob.
Jeffrey Mathews tau hais tias vim qhov kev nce qib ntawm kev siv thev naus laus zis ntawm kev nco mus rau cov nodes siab heev, kev ua tau zoo ntawm NAND thiab DRAM cov khoom yuav tsum ua tiav cov tiam tom ntej.Nws cia siab tias qhov kev thov ntawm cov lag luam tseem ceeb xws li cov chaw khaws ntaub ntawv, cov khoom siv thiab cov khoom siv hluav taws xob yuav loj tuaj, yog li cov neeg muag khoom tau tsav lawv lub cim xeeb cov khoom lag luam.Nyob rau lub sijhawm ntev, nws cia siab tias cov chaw muab kev nco yuav ceev faj hauv kev nthuav dav thiab tswj xyuas cov khoom siv nruj dua thiab kev qhuab qhia tus nqi.
Post lub sij hawm: Nov-05-2022