Raws li Associated Press of Finance, "qhov kev thov rau IGBT ntawm lub tsheb tshwj xeeb qib siab tshaj qhov kev cia siab rau xyoo no."Ib tus neeg sab hauv ntawm lub tuam txhab IGBT hauv tsev tau hais rau tus neeg sau xov xwm nrog kev xav.
Tus neeg sau xov xwm ntawm Associated Press of Finance tau kawm los ntawm ntau lub tuam txhab IGBT ntsig txog hauv Suav teb tias ntau ntawm cov kab tsim khoom tshiab uas twb muaj lawm ntawm ntau lub tuam txhab yog nyob rau lub sijhawm ntawm lub peev xwm.Tam sim no, muaj kev txiav txim txaus nyob rau hauv tes, thiab muaj ib tug dav backlog ntawm kev txiav txim.Lub peev xwm uas twb muaj lawm tseem tsis tuaj yeem ua tau raws li kev xav tau ntawm kev lag luam tag nrho.Txhua lub tuam txhab hauv kev lag luam ntseeg tias txawm hais tias txhua tus neeg tsim khoom lag luam tsis khoom nthuav dav, nws yuav siv sijhawm tsawg kawg 24 lub hlis rau qhov tshiab nthuav dav qhov project kom muab tso rau hauv ntau lawm.Nws yog ntxov dhau los kwv yees cov khoom siv thiab qhov xav tau qhov sib npaug, thiab cov kev txiav txim tshiab tom ntej lossis kev ua lag luam yuav nce.
Tam sim no muaj lub siab zoo los lav cov khoom, thiab kev txiav txim siab tshiab tau raug kaw ua ntej
"Txij li xyoo no, kev tsim khoom thiab muag cov tsheb hluav taws xob tau nce siab, thiab txhua tus (cov tuam txhab tsheb) yuav tsum siv cov khoom no (IGBT)."Ib tug neeg los ntawm lub tuam txhab kev nyab xeeb ntawm Times Electric (688187. SH) tau hais rau Associated Press of Finance, "Lub ntim ntawm lub tsheb hluav taws xob xyoo no tau dhau lub tuam txhab kev cia siab, thiab cov tuam txhab txawv teb chaws tsis tuaj yeem muab ntau yam khoom.Tam sim no, nws yog lub sijhawm qhov rai qhov kev thov ntau tshaj qhov muaj peev xwm tsim tau. "
Ib tus neeg muab khoom lag luam tau hais rau tus neeg sau xov xwm, "Yuav ua kom nthuav dav, piv txwv li, cov neeg siv khoom xav tau 10000 IGBTs, thaum lub tuam txhab tsuas yog muab tau 1000, ib txwm txhua tus yuav yeej tus thawj coj, vim qhov no yuav cuam tshuam ncaj qha rau kev tsim khoom ntawm tag nrho lub tsheb."Qhov tseeb, ntau tus neeg xa khoom tau mus txog qhov kev pom zoo tias cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau sib txawv ntawm IGBTs hauv lub tsheb specification nce mus txog 50%.Tus neeg sau xov xwm tau lees paub los ntawm kev sib txuas lus nrog ntau lub tuam txhab ntsig txog tias lub peev xwm uas twb muaj lawm tau raug muag tawm.Thaum lub tsheb ntsuas IGBT tsis txaus, qhov kev xa khoom siab yog siab, thiab cov xaj hauv tes tau teem sijhawm mus txog rau lub xyoo no lossis xyoo tom ntej.
Raws li cov ntaub ntawv tshawb fawb zaum kawg ntawm Time Electric, ntau qhov kev txiav txim tau pom los ntawm cov neeg siv khoom tsis ntev los no.Lub hli dhau los no, peb tau txais ntau tus neeg siv khoom tseem ceeb.Txhawm rau ntxiv ntau txhiab tus IGBTs hauv ib lub hlis twg, peb nquag sib txuas lus nrog lub tuam txhab.Tam sim no, IGBT hauv Suav teb yog cov khoom tsis txaus, thiab kev xa khoom siab ntawm tag nrho kev lag luam yuav zoo rau xyoo tom ntej.
Cov neeg los ntawm lub tuam txhab kev ruaj ntseg ntawm Hongwei Technology (688711. SH) tau hais tias lub peev xwm ntawm cov kab tsim khoom tshiab ntawm IGBT module, lub ntsiab tsav tsheb ntawm lub zog tshiab, yog nce, nrog lub peev xwm ncav cuag kaum tawm txhiab daim ib hlis.Lub saturation ntawm lub tsheb specifications nyob rau hauv tes yuav kav mus txog rau thaum xaus ntawm lub xyoo.Lub tuam txhab tam sim no txhawj xeeb txog seb qhov kev xa khoom tuaj yeem ua tau raws li qhov xav tau ntawm cov neeg siv khoom raws sijhawm.Nrog rau kev tso tawm tom ntej ntawm lub peev xwm tsim khoom, nws xav tias qhov kev faib ua feem ntawm cov nyiaj tau los ntawm kev lag luam no yuav nce xyoo tom ntej.
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm nyiaj txiag ntawm Stargate Semiconductors (603290. SH) qhia tau hais tias nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, lub tuam txhab tus tsav tsheb tseem ceeb IGBT modules txuas ntxiv tso tawm, txhawb ntau tshaj 500000 lub zog tshiab.Nws cia siab tias tus naj npawb ntawm cov tsheb txhawb nqa yuav nce ntxiv hauv ib nrab xyoo thib ob.Thaum kawg ntawm thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, daim ntawv cog lus lav tau nce ze li plaub npaug ntawm lub sijhawm dhau los.
Ib tus kws tshaj lij los ntawm cov chaw tsim tsheb hauv qab tau txheeb xyuas tus neeg sau xov xwm thiab hais tias IGBT ntawm lub tsheb tshwj xeeb yog Infineon, suav txog ntau dua 50%.Tam sim no, domestic IGBT tsuas yog tsim los ntawm Starr Semi conductor, BYD thiab Time Electric.Fuman cov ntaub ntawv hluav taws xob qhia tau hais tias Q3 lub sijhawm ua haujlwm ntawm Infineon IGBT yog 39-50 lub lis piam.
Kev nthuav dav ntawm kev lag luam tawm txawv teb chaws yog qis dua qhov xav tau, thiab lub sijhawm xa khoom txuas ntxiv mus ntxiv.Cov tuam txhab tsim tsheb hauv tsev tau maj mam lees txais IGBT hauv tsev rau lub hom phiaj ntawm kev ruaj ntseg cov saw hlau, thiab tseem txaus siab rau kev cog qoob loo hauv tsev IGBT cov tuam txhab.2022 tseem yuav yog ib lub xyoo thaum qhov sib koom ntawm cov tuam txhab IGBT hauv tsev yuav nce ntxiv.
Cov neeg hais saum toj no los ntawm Hongwei Technology Securities Department ntseeg tias muaj ntau yam laj thawj.Ua ntej, cov tuam txhab tsheb tau txhim kho lawv qhov kev lees paub ntawm cov khoom siv hauv tsev (IGBT);Qhov thib ob, qhov sib txawv ntawm cov khoom siv hauv tsev thiab txawv teb chaws tau nqaim tom qab kev txhim kho ntawm cov txheej txheem hauv tsev;Thib peb, cov khoom siv hauv tsev yog tus nqi ntau dua;Plaub, kev xa khoom teb tau raws sijhawm.
Tus nqi ntawm IGBTs hauv tsev tuaj yeem nce ntxiv nrog rau kev ua lag luam, thiab cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau sib npaug yog nyob deb ntawm qhov kev nthuav dav ntawm kev tsim khoom.
Nyob rau lub Cuaj Hli xyoo no, lub khw muag khoom ntawm lub zog tshiab tsheb neeg caij tsheb mus txog 611000, cov ntaub ntawv siab hauv ib hlis.Guotai Jun'an cia siab tias kev muag khoom hauv tsev ntawm lub zog tshiab tsheb yuav dhau 6.5 lab hauv 2022. Txoj kev loj hlob ntawm lub zog tshiab tsheb txuas ntxiv mus dhau qhov kev cia siab, txhawb nqa daim ntawv thov IGBT hauv cov tsheb tshwj xeeb.Xyoo 2021, kev lag luam sib koom ntawm cov tsheb tshiab lub zog hauv kev siv qis qis ntawm IGBT hauv Suav teb yuav yog 31%, thiab tus nqi ntawm IGBT yuav suav txog 7% - 10% ntawm tus nqi tsheb.
Raws li qhov tsis txaus ntseeg tam sim no ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau, cov tuam txhab loj hauv tebchaws tau nthuav dav lawv cov khoom.Tam sim no, lub peev xwm ntawm Phase II ntawm Times Electric yog ze rau qhov tsim muaj peev xwm ntawm 240000 daim.Lub tuam txhab npaj yuav nqis peev 5.826 billion yuan nyob rau hauv kev tsim kho ntawm Yixing project, uas yuav ua rau kom lub peev xwm ntau lawm ntawm 360000 daim ntawm 8-nti nruab nrab thiab qis voltage module puag cov ntaub ntawv txhua xyoo tom qab ncav lub peev xwm;Smurvey (600460. SH) npaj yuav nce txhua xyoo ntau lawm ntawm 360000 daim ntawm 12 nti nti cov kab ntau lawm, thiab ntxiv 120000 daim ntawm FS-IGBT fais fab chips ib xyoos tom qab ncav cuag lub peev xwm… Ntau lub tuam txhab koom nrog kev tsim cov IGBT.
Thaum twg yuav qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev xa khoom thiab kev thov rau IGBT ntawm lub tsheb specifications tshwm sim?Hauv qhov no, ntau lub tuam txhab muaj npe cuam tshuam tau hais rau cov neeg sau xov xwm tias los ntawm qhov xwm txheej tam sim no thiab cov txheej txheem ntawm kev nthuav dav ntau lawm yav tom ntej, kev tuaj txog ntawm cov khoom siv thiab qhov xav tau qhov sib npaug yuav ntxov dhau.
Raws li kev soj ntsuam ntawm tus neeg sau xov xwm los ntawm cov lus hais saum toj no, macro thiab micro thev naus laus zis kev ruaj ntseg department, tag nrho cov kab tsim khoom tshiab ntawm IGBT tau dhau los ua pov thawj zoo thiab kev xeem, thiab lawv tsis tuaj yeem tsim tom qab cov khoom siv nyob rau hauv qhov chaw.Txawm hais tias qhov ntsuas ntawm kev lag luam kev npaj nthuav dav yog qhov loj, kev ncav cuag lub peev xwm tsim tau yog lub hom phiaj, uas yuav tsum tau muaj kev nce siab ntev, thaum lub sijhawm hloov pauv hloov pauv tau, xws li kev tswj hwm kev lag luam thiab thaj chaw photovoltaic yuav tsum siv IGBT.Tam sim no, tsis muaj qhov chaw uas cov khoom yuav tshaj qhov xav tau hauv khw.
Cov neeg los ntawm Slim Micro Securities kuj tau hais rau tus neeg sau xov xwm tias 12 nti wafer nthuav dav yuav txhim kho lub tuam txhab lub peev xwm wafer, uas tuaj yeem siv tag nrho rau IGBT cov khoom thiab kev faib sab hauv.
Hauv kev xav ntawm cov neeg sab hauv ntawm Times Electric, IGBT ntawm lub tsheb specification theem kuj tseem nyob rau hauv cov khoom tsis txaus rau xyoo no thiab xyoo tom ntej.Los ntawm 2024 mus rau 2025, qhov degree ntawm kev tsis txaus yuav maj mam yooj yim.Ntau tus neeg siv khoom tam sim no xav kaw cov xaj ncaj qha mus rau 2025.
Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm qhov project expansion voj voog, piv txwv li, lub sij hawm tsim kho ntawm Shidai Electric Phase III Project yog hais txog 24 lub hlis, thiab lub sij hawm tsim kho ntawm Shilan Micro Fixed nce Project yog 3 xyoo.Nyob rau lub sijhawm no, nws tseem yuav ntsib lub sijhawm pov thawj ntawm cov chaw tsim khoom lag luam downstream thiab lub sijhawm nce ntxiv ntawm cov kab ntau lawm tshiab muaj peev xwm thiab tawm los.Nws tsis yog ib qho yooj yim los rhuav tshem lub peev xwm bottleneck ntawm IGBT.
Tus neeg sau xov xwm tau sau tseg tias Infineon, uas feem ntau tsom mus rau kev lag luam high-end tsheb ntsuas kev lag luam, yav dhau los tshaj tawm tus nqi nce, thiab kev ua lag luam xav tias nws yuav npaj yuav nce tus nqi ntawm cov khoom lag luam thiab tsheb hauv lub quarter thib plaub.Cov neeg sab hauv ntawm ntau lub tuam txhab hauv kev lag luam tau hais los saum toj no tag nrho hais tias yog tias tag nrho cov nqi lag luam nce siab, nws muaj peev xwm ua raws li kev lag luam.Qee cov neeg nyob hauv cov saw hlau tseem hais tias cov xaj xaj tshiab yuav nce me ntsis.
Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm cov tuam txhab uas tau tshaj tawm qhov kev ua tau zoo tshaj plaws, Times Electric cov nyiaj tau los hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg tau nce 30% xyoo rau xyoo, tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob xws li lub zog tshiab IGBT;Hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm lub xyoo, macro thiab micro technology tau nce 31% (96% hauv Q3).
Post lub sij hawm: Oct-21-2022