Chip tus nqi raug txiav, thiab cov chips qeeb muag.Lub suab zoo li tsis txaus ntseeg tau raug clamored los ntawm cov neeg suav tsis txheeb txij li thawj ib nrab xyoo no.Hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2022, vim qhov kev thov qeeb hauv cov neeg siv khoom siv hluav taws xob ua lag luam, kev lag luam nti ib zaug ua rau muaj kev txo nqi.Nyob rau hauv lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, zajlus rov ua nws tus kheej.
Tsis ntev los no, CCTV xov xwm tau tshaj tawm tias raws li lub hauv paus tseem ceeb ntawm kev tswj hwm hluav taws xob, STMicroelectronics nti yog ib qho ntawm cov khoom lag luam hauv kev xav tau tshaj plaws hauv xyoo 2021. Nws poob mus rau ib puag ncig 600 yuan, poob ntau txog 80%.
Coincidentally, tus nqi ntawm lwm nti xyoo tas los yog kaum lub sij hawm txawv ntawm lub xyoo no.Tus nqi ntawm chips yog piv rau cov nqaij npuas, nce thiab poob.Qhov sib txawv ntawm tus nqi siab tshaj thiab tus nqi qub dhau los yog exaggerated heev.Nws tau tshaj tawm tias cov xov xwm tshaj tawm tias STMicroelectronics nti ntawm 600 yuan tsuas yog tus nqi ib txwm muaj kaum ntawm yuan hauv 2020.
Chiv npaws zoo li dhau lawm.Puas yog huab uas npog tag nrho lub voj voog thev naus laus zis xyoo tas los txog yuav ploj mus?Raws li Bloomberg, feem coob ntawm cov tuam txhab nti tam sim no ntseeg tias yuav muaj qhov hloov pauv loj hauv kev lag luam kub no rau lub sijhawm ntev los no, thiab qee tus txawm tias pessimistically ntseeg tias kev lag luam semiconductor yuav ua rau poob qis tshaj plaws hauv kaum xyoo.
Ob peb zoo siab, ob peb tu siab, thiab tus nqi nti yog avalanching.Ntxiv nrog rau kev lag luam ntsiag to, kuv ntshai tias muaj kev lag luam suav tsis txheeb hauv cov khoom noj khoom haus.
Chip down, tab sis tsis tag?
Lub avalanche ntawm cov nqi nti yog sib cais los ntawm kev poob qis hauv ntiaj teb kev siv hluav taws xob.
Nws tuaj yeem pom los ntawm TSMC daim ntawv tshaj tawm nyiaj txiag tshiab tshaj plaws uas cov lag luam smartphone, uas ib zaug txhawb nqa ib nrab ntawm lub tebchaws, tsis yog qhov loj tshaj plaws ntawm cov nyiaj tau los, thiab cov kev faib ua feem ntawm kev lag luam no yuav poob mus ntxiv.Kev xa khoom ntawm cov xov tooj smartphones thiab PCs tsis zoo li lub Ib Hlis txij li thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo no.Raws li CINNO tshawb fawb cov ntaub ntawv, nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2022, Tuam Tshoj lub smartphone SoC davhlau ya nyob twg xa khoom yog kwv yees li 134 lab, poob txog 16.9% xyoo-rau-xyoo.
Raws li rau PC sab, raws li kev lag luam tshawb fawb tuam txhab Mercury Research, nyob rau hauv lub quarter thib ob ntawm lub xyoo no, desktop computer processors xa khoom poob mus rau theem qis tshaj nyob rau hauv ze li ntawm 30 xyoo, thiab tag nrho cov processor xa khoom tau ntsib qhov loj tshaj plaws xyoo-rau-xyoo poob txij li thaum. 1984. South Kauslim Smartphone muag poob 29.2% xyoo-rau-xyoo nyob rau hauv Lub Xya hli ntuj, thaum exports ntawm computers thiab auxiliary khoom poob 21.9%, thiab kev xa khoom ntawm nco chips ua rau poob nrog 13.5% poob.
Qhov kev thov nce siab txo qis, cov dej ntws txuas ntxiv txiav txiav, thiab tus nqi ib txwm txias ua
Txawm li cas los xij, nws yuav tsum tau muab sau tseg tias cov chips nrog tus nqi txo tsis muaj kev cuam tshuam dav dav rau tag nrho kev lag luam semiconductor.Puas yog lub chip tiag tiag poob rau hauv nqe?Raws li cov xov xwm ntawm "slump", tseem muaj cov tuam txhab lag luam bucking tus qauv thiab tshaj tawm tus nqi nce.Piv txwv li, Intel, Qualcomm, Meiman Electronics, Broadcom, thiab lwm yam. npaj yuav nce nqi rau qee yam ntawm lawv cov khoom siv nti.
Siv Intel ua piv txwv, raws li Nikkei, Intel tau qhia cov neeg siv khoom tias tus nqi ntawm cov khoom lag luam semiconductor yuav nce ntxiv hauv ib nrab xyoo 2022. Nws xav tias yuav nce tus nqi ntawm ntau yam khoom xws li core servers thiab computer CPU processors. thiab peripheral chips.Nyob ntawm seb hom, qhov qis tshaj yog nyob rau hauv ib tus lej, thiab qhov loj tshaj plaws tuaj yeem ncav cuag 10% mus rau 20%.
Puas yog lub nti nce lossis tsis?Nws tuaj yeem hais tias tus nqi ntawm cov neeg siv khoom siv hluav taws xob chips tau poob sai sai vim qhov kev thov poob qis, tab sis qhov kev thov rau MCUs hauv lwm daim ntawv thov, xws li tsheb thiab kev tswj hwm kev lag luam, tau ua rau cov nqi siab ntawm cov chips cuam tshuam.Los ntawm qhov pib ntawm qhov txawv txav ntawm kev xa xov tooj ntawm tes, lub neej yav tom ntej ntawm kev lag luam nti tau nthuav qhia tias yog muag qeeb, tab sis qhov tseeb,cov nti tsis txaus hauv qee qhov kev lag luam tseem tsis tau xaus.
Tshwj xeeb tshaj yog rau automotive chips, cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm 2022 Tuam Tshoj Nansha International Integrated Circuit Industry Forum qhia tau hais tias tam sim no cov khoom chips tsuas tuaj yeem ua tau raws li 31% ntawm cov kev xav tau ntawm automakers nyob rau nruab nrab.Cov ntaub ntawv muab rau lub hli yog tias GAC ntsib qhov tsis txaus ntawm 33,000 chips hauv lub quarter thib ob.
Kev lag luam hluav taws xob tshiab tau mus zoo, thiab qhov kev thov rau chips yav tom ntej yuav tsum tsis txhob kwv yees.Nws tau tshaj tawm tias ib lub tsheb nruab nrab yuav tsum tau siv 500 chips, thiab lub zog tshiab tsheb nqa chips ntau dua.Xyoo tas los, kev muag tsheb thoob ntiaj teb yog kwv yees li 81.05 lab, uas txhais tau hais tias tag nrho cov tsheb lag luam kev lag luam xav tau 40.5 billion chips.
Tsis tas li ntawd, high-end chips tseem siab tshaj lub thaj ua lag luam.Ntawm qhov tod tes, qhov kev thov rau cov chips nrog cov txheej txheem thev naus laus zis hauv kev lag luam nce toj tsis tau poob qis.Nws tau tshaj tawm yav dhau los tias TSMC's 3nm chips yuav raug tsim tawm hauv lub Cuaj Hli, thiab Apple yuav yog thawj tus neeg siv khoom siv TSMC's 3nm chips.
Nws tau tshaj tawm tias xyoo tom ntej, suav nrog A17 processors tshiab thiab M3 series processors, Apple yuav siv TSMC's 3nm.Ntawm qhov tod tes, muaj qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov khoom siv semiconductor, thiab cov khoom tsim tawm ntawm 3nm thiab 2nm cov txheej txheem siab heev yog destined kom qis, thiab tej zaum yuav muaj qhov sib txawv ntawm 10% mus rau 20% hauv 2024-2025.
Yog li ntawd, tus nqi tseem tsawg dua yuav poob.Ntau yam cim qhia peb tias chips poob ib qho zuj zus, thiab qhov kev lag luam no tsis yooj yim li nws zoo li.
Cov neeg siv khoom chips poob tawm ntawm kev txaus siab?
Ib sab tuag lawm, thiab sab nraud kuj vam meej.
Cov neeg siv khoom siv hluav taws xob chips tau dhau los ntawm lub sijhawm zoo tshaj plaws hauv ob xyoos dhau los.Nrog rau kev poob qis hauv qib ntawm kev siv hluav taws xob, lawv thaum kawg tau nqis los ntawm lub thaj.Tam sim no, ntau lub tuam txhab chip yog tibneeg hu tauj coob hloov lawv cov lag luam, los ntawm cov neeg siv khoom mus rau automotive thiab engineering teb.TSMC tau teev cov kev lag luam tsheb ua lag luam tseem ceeb hauv ob peb xyoos tom ntej no.Nws tau tshaj tawm tias nyob rau sab av loj, kev lag luam tsheb ntawm cov neeg ua si hauv MCU xws li Zhaoyi Innovation, Zhongying Electronics, thiab Tuam Tshoj Micro Semiconductor kuj tau dhau los ua pom tseeb dua.
Tshwj xeeb, Zhaoyi thawj lub tsheb-qib MCU cov khoom tau nkag mus rau cov neeg siv khoom qauv kuaj theem hauv lub Peb Hlis, thiab nws xav tias yuav ua tiav ntau lawm xyoo no;Zhongying Electronics feem ntau yog siv rau lub cev tswj MCU, thiab nws xav tias yuav raug kaw nyob rau hauv nruab nrab ntawm lub xyoo.Rov qab;Tuam Tshoj Microelectronics tau qhia nws txoj kev txiav txim siab los tsim cov tsheb-qib chips hauv nws daim ntawv tshaj tawm.Nws IPO npaj yuav nce 729 lab yuan, ntawm 283 lab yuan yuav siv rau kev tshawb fawb thiab kev loj hlob ntawm tsheb-qib nti.
Qhov no yog to taub.Tom qab tag nrho, lub localization tus nqi ntawm domestic automotive xam thiab tswj chips yog tsawg dua 1%, lub localization tus nqi ntawm sensors yog tsawg dua 4%, thiab localization tus nqi ntawm lub hwj chim semiconductors, nco, thiab kev sib txuas lus yog 8%, 8%, thiab 3%, feem.Kev tsim hluav taws xob tshiab hauv tsheb tau nce siab ntxiv, thiab tag nrho cov ecosystem ntse, suav nrog kev tsav tsheb, kuj tseem yuav siv ntau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob nyob rau theem tom ntej.
Thiab nws yuav nyuaj npaum li cas kom ua raws li cov neeg siv khoom chips?
Yav dhau los, nws tau tshaj tawm tias Samsung tau ncua ib ntus kev yuav khoom ntawm txhua lub lag luam suav nrog cov vaj huam sib luag, cov xov tooj ntawm tes thiab lub cim xeeb chips, thiab txawm tias ntau lub tuam txhab Korean nco yuav pib txiav cov nqi ntau dua 5% hauv kev pauv rau kev muag khoom.Nuvoton Technology, uas tsom mus rau cov neeg siv khoom siv hluav taws xob, kuj pom qhov nce ntawm cov txiaj ntsig ntau dua 5.5 npaug ntawm xyoo tas los, nrog cov nyiaj tau los ntawm NT $ 7.27 ib feem.Lub Plaub Hlis thiab Tsib Hlis xyoo no, qhov kev ua tau zoo tau dhau los ua tiaj tus, nrog cov nyiaj tau los poob los ntawm 2.18% thiab 3.04% feem.
Ib qho yuav tsis piav ntau, tab sis cov ntaub ntawv Cua qhia tau hais tias txij li lub Tsib Hlis 9, 126 lub tuam txhab semiconductor thoob ntiaj teb tau tshaj tawm lawv cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag rau thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm 2022, ntawm 16 tau ntsib ib xyoo dhau ib xyoo poob hauv cov nyiaj tau los lossis txawm poob.Cov neeg siv khoom siv hluav taws xob tau poob sai sai, thiab tsheb thiab kev tswj hwm kev lag luam tau dhau los ua qhov txiaj ntsig nrhiav txiaj ntsig tom ntej hauv kev lag luam chip.
Tab sis cov khoom puas yooj yim li lawv zoo li?
Tshwj xeeb tshaj yog rau qee cov tuam txhab tsim hluav taws xob hauv tsev, txav los ntawm cov neeg siv khoom siv hluav taws xob mus rau thaj chaw tsheb yog ntau dua li qhov kev lag luam kub tuaj yeem txiav txim siab.Ua ntej tshaj plaws, cov chips hauv tsev yuav tsum muaj qis qis, thiab kev noj zaub mov ua ntej, suav txog 27%.Txawm hais tias koj saib hauv ntiaj teb, kev ua lag luam hauv tsev kuj yog lub lag luam loj tshaj plaws semiconductor.Cov ntaub ntawv qhia tau hais tias nyob rau hauv 2021, semiconductor muag nyob rau hauv Suav teb loj kev lag luam yuav ncav cuag US $ 29.62 billion, ib xyoo-rau-xyoo nce ntawm 58%.Nws yog lub ntiaj teb loj tshaj plaws semiconductor kev ua lag luam, suav txog 28.9% ntawm lub ntiaj teb tag nrho cov khoom muag semiconductor..
Qhov thib ob, kev lag luam nti nws tus kheej muaj txiaj ntsig ntau dua hauv kev lag luam ntawm smartphones thiab 5G.Siv TSMC ua piv txwv,
TSMC cov khoom xa tuaj rau 70% ntawm lub tsheb MCU kev ua lag luam, tab sis nyob rau hauv 2020's cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj tau los, kev koom tes ntawm automotive chips tsuas yog 3.31%.Los ntawm Q1 2022, TSMC lub xov tooj ntawm tes thiab kev ua haujlwm siab yuav suav txog 40% thiab 41% ntawm cov nyiaj tau los, ntsig txog, thaum IoT, automotive, DCE, thiab lwm yam yuav tsuas yog 8%, 5%, 3%, thiab 3. %, raws.
Muaj tsawg thov, tab sis cov nyiaj tau los tseem muaj, thiab nws yog ib qho teeb meem.Qhov no yog tej zaum qhov teeb meem tshaj plaws hauv kev lag luam semiconductor.
Tom qab boom, cov neeg siv khoom carnival?
Thaum tus nqi ntawm cov chips hloov pauv, cov neeg siv khoom zoo siab tshaj plaws.Cov xov tooj ntawm tes, tsheb thiab txawm tias cov khoom siv hauv tsev ntse tau dhau los ua cov neeg siv khoom noj khoom haus ntau zaus tom qab txiav nqi chips, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov xov tooj ntawm tes.Tsis ntev tom qab tus nqi nti avalanche, qee cov neeg tau qw ntawm kev sib raug zoo platform los yuav cov xov tooj ntawm tes kom tau nyiaj hauv ib nrab xyoo no.
Tam sim ntawd tom qab ntawd, tus nqi ntawm lub zog tshiab, tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv hauv tsev ... thiab lwm yam tuaj tom qab.Txawm li cas los xij, tsis muaj qhov sib txawv meej txog seb puas yuav muaj tus nqi txo qis hauv cov khoom lag luam, tab sis hais ncaj ncees, qhov kev txo nqi ntawm cov nti no yuav tsis ua rau muaj kev txo nqi ntau hauv cov neeg siv khoom lag luam.
Cia peb xub saib ntawm lub xov tooj ntawm tes muaj feem cuam tshuam.Nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los no, cov tuam txhab xov tooj ntawm tes tau nce nqi tsis nres.Qhov qis-kawg yog ntsiag to, high-end yog swaggering, thiab muaj peev xwm ntawm tus nqi txo rau ib pliag yog tsawg heev.Tsis tas li ntawd, cov nyiaj tau los tag nrho ntawm cov tuam txhab xov tooj hauv tsev tsis tau siab.Yav dhau los, ntawm Huawei Developer Conference, Yang Haisong, tus lwm thawj ntawm Huawei tus neeg siv khoom lag luam software department, tau hais tias cov txiaj ntsig ntawm Suav cov tuam txhab xov tooj ntawm tes tsis zoo, thiab kev lag luam hauv xov tooj hauv tsev muaj ntau dua li ib nrab, tab sis tsuas yog kwv yees li 10%.profit.
Tsis tas li ntawd, cov chips tau poob lawm, tab sis cov nqi ntawm lwm cov khoom tsis zoo, xws li sensors thiab cov ntxaij vab tshaus.Cov qauv high-end tau dhau los ua ntau thiab ntau lub hauv paus, thiab cov tuam txhab xov tooj ntawm tes muaj qhov xav tau nruj dua ntawm cov khoom siv.Nws tau tshaj tawm tias OPPO, Xiaomi Nws ib zaug kho tshwj xeeb sensors rau Sony thiab Samsung.
Yog li ntawd, tus nqi ntawm cov xov tooj ntawm tes tsis nce, uas yog ib qho koob hmoov rau cov neeg siv khoom.
Saib ntawm lub zog tshiab, cov chips tseem ceeb uas tau txiav nqi lub sijhawm no tsis yog nyob rau hauv kev tsim tsheb.Dab tsi ntxiv, nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, tus nqi nce ntawm lub zog tshiab lub tsheb tsim lub voj voog tsis tau tiaj tus, thiab nws tau nce ntau dua.Cov laj thawj tom qab nws tsis yog txhua yam tshwm sim los ntawm chips.kev puas tsuaj.Cov nqi ntawm cov ntaub ntawv ntau yog nce, thiab cov nqi ntawm npib tsib xee, hlau, thiab txhuas, nrog rau qhov zoo thiab tsis zoo electrodes, tsuas yog nce thiab nqis, thiab cov nqi ntawm cov roj teeb tseem siab.Obviously, cov xwm txheej no tsis tuaj yeem raug liam ntawm chips ib leeg.
Ntawm chav kawm, nws tsis yog tsis yooj yim sua kom pom cov nti reflow hauv lub tsheb tsim lub voj voog.Txij li thaum lub xyoo no, cov nqi ntawm LED teeb-emitting chips thiab tsav tsheb chips tau nqis los ntawm 30% -40%, uas yuav undoubtedly ua si ib lub luag hauj lwm nyob rau hauv buffering cov nqi tsheb tom ntej ntawm cov tswv tsheb..
Ntxiv nrog rau cov xov tooj smartphones, cov neeg siv khoom siv chips muaj qhov cuam tshuam loj tshaj plaws ntawm cov khoom siv hauv tsev ntse xws li cua txias thiab tub yees.Qhov kev thov rau MCUs rau peb cov khoom dawb loj hauv Suav teb yog qhov tseeb tsis tsawg, nce los ntawm 570 lab hauv 2017 mus rau ntau dua 700 lab hauv 2022, ntawm cov teeb pom kev zoo ntawm MCU cov nyiaj ntau dua 60%.
Txawm li cas los xij, cov chips siv hauv lub tsev ntse yog cov chips qis kawg nrog cov txheej txheem tsim rov qab, uas yog diametrically tawm tsam cov txheej txheem tsim khoom siab xws li 3nm thiab 7nm, uas feem ntau siab dua 28nm lossis 45nm.Koj paub, cov chips no tsis siab nyob rau hauv chav tsev nqi vim lawv cov ntsiab lus tsis zoo thiab daim ntawv thov dav.
Rau cov tuam txhab khoom siv hauv tsev, thev naus laus zis tsawg txhais tau tias lawv tuaj yeem ua tiav tus kheej txaus.Xyoo 2017, Gree's microelectronics department tau tsim;nyob rau hauv 2018, Konka tshaj tawm lub official tsim ntawm lub semiconductor technology faib;Hauv 2018, Midea tshaj tawm nws nkag mus rau hauv chip manufacturing thiab tsim Meiren Semiconductor Company.Thaum Lub Ib Hlis 2021, Meiken Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd. tau tsim.Tam sim no, cov khoom loj txhua xyoo ntawm nws cov MCU chips yog kwv yees li 10 lab.
Raws li kev txheeb cais tsis tiav, ntau lub tuam txhab khoom siv hauv tsev, suav nrog TCL, Konka, Skyworth, thiab Haier, twb tau xa mus rau hauv cov khoom siv hluav taws xob.Hauv lwm lo lus, daim teb no tsis txwv los ntawm chips txhua.
Down, los tsis down?Tus nqi txiav no zoo li kev txhaj tshuaj cuav, thiab cov neeg tsim khoom lag luam tsis zoo siab rau lub sijhawm tam sim no, cia nyob ib leeg cov neeg siv khoom.
Post lub sij hawm: Aug-23-2022